"Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?": U.S. book says maybe

NEW YORK -Many experts put the chances of terrorists using a nuclear bomb much lower than public fears would indicate, a leading expert argues in a new book."Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?" examines the history and psychology of nuclear terrorism, including whether or not terrorists could build a nuclear bomb, and if so, how bad it would be and how governments can prepare and avert disaster.Author Brian Michael Jenkins is a senior adviser at the RAND Corp think tank who has written about nuclear terrorism since the 1970s. His new book was released this week by Prometheus Books.Jenkins asked 180 experts, including intelligence officials, senior military officers, government officials and nuclear scientists, to rate the probability that terrorists would successfully detonate a nuclear bomb in the next 10 years.The responses ranged wildly, from zero to 100 percent certainty. The median response was 10 percent probability-well below public opinion polls he cites showing around one in four Americans expect a nuclear attack within five years.The question involved a nuclear bomb, not a "dirty bomb," in which radioactive material packed around conventional explosives is scattered when the device goes off."The experts clearly do not agree here," Jenkins said.Popular perceptions of a higher risk are fueled by movies and novels, sensationalist news coverage and partisan politics in Washington, where fear has been used to further political agendas, Jenkins said in an interview.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN1639146720080917
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