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During their meeting in Beijing on May 23, 2008, Chinese President Hu Jintao and new Russian President Dimitry Medvedev issued a joint statement criticizing the establishment of a global missile defense system.Specifically, the statement said that such defenses are "not conducive to the maintenance of strategic balance and stability."[1]This statement was a not-so-veiled criticism of the United States and its allies, which are cooperating in fielding missile defense systems, and should be seen for what it is: an attempt to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies.Its ultimate purpose is to advance the joint Chinese–Russian agenda of a multipolar world by challenging the U.S.-led alliance. It is a challenge against which the U.S. and its allies must stand together.Beyond criticism of the U.S. and its allies, however, the joint statement represents a fundamental misreading by the Chinese and Russians of the requirements for stability in today's and tomorrow's world.It is a misunderstanding that, if allowed to persist, will greatly increase the risk of large-scale destruction-including destruction of China and Russia. Under these circumstances, the U.S. must engage in aggressive diplomacy with China and Russia to convince both countries that their attack on U.S.-led missile defense and the prospective strategy that stands behind it is both wrong and dangerous.
Meeting the Chinese–Russian Challenge to the Alliance
It is clear that China and Russia see it as in their immediate self-interest to undermine the solidarity of the relationships between the U.S. and its allies, including countries in Asia and Europe. The condemnation of missile defense in the joint statement must be seen in this broader context. China and Russia want to drive wedges between the U.S. and its allies such as the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea because they see these relationships as an obstacle to their ambitions for regional hegemony-for Russia, in Europe, and for China, in Asia. Missile defense cooperation is the most tangible and visible aspect of alliance solidarity in recent months.If the U.S. and its allies buckle under Chinese and Russian pressure, they should expect repeated efforts to serve the same general purpose in the context of other issues. These other issues are likely to include further expansion of NATO, the settlement of diplomatic recognition of Kosovo, the evolution toward a more balanced security relationship between the U.S. and Japan, and concerted U.S. and South Korean military cooperation to counterbalance North Korea if it ultimately proves unwilling to abandon its nuclear weapons program.This means that missile defense cooperation between the U.S. and its allies has political implications that go beyond the added security provided by missile defense systems.The issue is becoming a fundamental test of alliance solidarity. The Chinese and Russians are all but certain to view the abandonment of missile defense cooperation between the U.S. and its allies as proof that they can use the tactic of driving wedges in the alliance to advance to the next step of their already successful policy of creating a multipolar world.The sequence of actions that the Chinese and Russians are contemplating is all too predictable. If, for example, Poland abandons missile defense cooperation with the U.S., the Poles should anticipate that Russia will take both positive and negative actions to draw them back into its sphere of influence. These actions could range from offering advantageous energy deals to threatening to target Poland with military forces in order to obtain commitments from Poland to limit the scope of NATO and bilateral U.S.– Polish security cooperation. China would likely use Japan's abandonment of missile defense cooperation with the U.S. to convince the Japanese that the U.S. cannot assure the protection of energy routes.Avoiding this predictable sequence of actions by China and Russia to divide the U.S. from its allies requires a response that demonstrates to all concerned that the effect of such attempts will be the opposite of what is intended. First and foremost, this means continuing missile defense cooperation. In the broader context, it requires the allies to strengthen their bonds.Even in a multipolar world, this positive coalition dynamic is the key to countering potentially aggressive behavior by China, Russia, and other non–status quo powers. The goal of this approach is to demonstrate to China and Russia that their attempts to drive wedges will not cause the U.S., China, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to act as individual powers. Rather, the U.S. and its allies are prepared to continue to collaborate and work together.Nuclear-games exercises designed and conducted by The Heritage Foundation have shown that the preservation of the U.S.-led alliance is just as important in maintaining peace and stability in today's multipolar world as it was in the bipolar world of the Cold War.[2] Alliance de-formation in a multipolar world can cause unpredictable swings in the balance of power. The credibility of the alliance structure is essential to stability and peace....
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by Baker Spring
As in the days of Noah....
