Divisions Weaken Pakistan's Islamists

ISLAMABAD,Pakistan-Five years after riding to power in Pakistan's critical border provinces on a wave of anti-American rage, Islamist parties are divided and in disarray ahead of crucial January elections.Their alliance is on the cusp of a bad-tempered breakup that could cut their influence-and help the next government tackle rising Islamic extremism.Religious party leaders can still draw on widespread resentment of President Pervez Musharraf's reliance on force to counter militant groups linked to the Taliban and al-Qaida.But many observers expect them to lose their grip along the Afghan frontier-which could make it easier for the next federal government to deliver promised development aid as well as to deploy troops.The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which groups six religious parties, is being pulled apart by a row over how best to confront Musharraf. Its two main partners are on opposite sides of a debate about whether to boycott the Jan. 8 elections.Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan's most venerable Islamist group, says taking part in the vote would legitimize Musharraf's breach of the constitution when he declared emergency rule Nov. 3.But Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, which is associated with a network of hard- line madrassas, or religious schools, in Pakistan's northwest, wants to participate rather than let rival parties conquer its strongholds."We believe that boycotting the polls would lead society toward anarchy and all hopes for restoration of democracy will be dashed," said Mufti Abrar Ahmed, a party spokesman.The rival factions are even bickering over who can use a book as their election symbol—a draw for largely illiterate voters who associate it with the Quran.
"They have serious differences, so this time they should not expect a big victory in the election," said Shah Jehan, a 30-year-old day laborer in Peshawar, the hub of the northwest. "This is mainly about power, and people did not like this hungering for power."The religious right shot to prominence after the 1999 coup that brought Musharraf to power and marginalized mainstream leaders.With anti-American feelings at a boiling point after the invasion of Afghanistan, the Islamic parties formed the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and won 59 out of 342 seats in the lower house of parliament in 2002.That made them a key player in a hung federal Parliament. Musharraf made concessions in the direction of Islamic law to secure their help in legalizing his coup.They also won the right to lead the government in one border province and fill half the Cabinet posts in the other.In North West Frontier province, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal launched a drive to extend Islamic law. Activists tore down billboard advertisements they considered obscene, men were barred from coaching female athletes and music was banned from public buses.Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam was criticized for not acting to prevent extremist groups recruiting from the madrassas, although it denies collusion with militants.The Islamist parties accuse Pakistani intelligence of fanning a war with ethnic Pashtun tribesmen and playing up the specter of al-Qaida to persuade America to keep up its multibillion-dollar relationship with Pakistan.They believe they can make further gains among those opposed to Musharraf's alliance with Washington."I think anti-American feeling has increased, particularly because of what Mr. Bush has said about direct military intervention in Pakistan," said Khursheed Ahmed, Jamaat-e-Islami's deputy leader.President Bush has suggested American forces could swoop on al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden if he is located on Pakistani soil—an idea which inflames nationalist and Islamist feelings here.But with former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif-leaders of the main secular opposition parties—back in the political limelight, religious groups seem in a quandary about how to shore up their influence.Even if a split in the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal coalition is avoided, the Islamists could fare badly at the polls because of their lackluster performance in the provincial administration.Mehdi Hasan, a political analyst, expects the religious parties to lose about half the seats they won in 2002 and cede control of Baluchistan and North West Frontier provinces.He said they were out of favor with the establishment, had failed to meet promises to implement Islamic law and were no longer alone in railing at the U.S."We are disappointed with them because they were involved in the traditional politics instead of bringing any revolutionary change in our lives," said Muhammad Saeed, a shopkeeper in Peshawar.However, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam still hopes to defend its seats in the more mountainous parts of the region and some analysts say it could cling to power as part of new coalitions in the two provinces.It could even enter the federal government by shuffling alliances.The group's leader, Fazlur Rehman, and Bhutto are the two loudest voices opposing an election boycott, reviving speculation they were lining up with the president's supporters.That could bolster Western hopes for a moderate, stable government, especially as the United States begins rolling out a $750 million, five-year aid program for the backward border region.Some view the participation of religious parties in elections as an important check on the influence of more violent groups—although they have so far appeared reluctant to criticize violent groups who claim to be fighting under the same Islamic banner.Musharraf, for instance, recently blamed the provincial government for delaying an ongoing military operation in the Swat Valley, 100 miles north of the capital, Islamabad.Zaffar Abbas, an editor of the respected Dawn newspaper, said a new government in Peshawar, perhaps with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam participation, would have more scope to act."Resistance to deploy troops at short notice and go for some development work in areas where there is a challenge of terrorism will become easier," Abbas said. "The provincial government will probably supplement the policies of the federal government without much resistance."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8TCPCSG2&show_article=1&catnum=0

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