.bmp)
.bmp)
WASHINGTON-A Russian military resurgence bolstered by booming oil wealth is raising some concern here about where Moscow is headed, US defense officials and outside experts say.Threats by Russia to withdraw from key arms control treaties, reaffirmed by President Vladimir Putin last week in Moscow with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, have punctuated the slide in relations.In the past year, Russia has revived strategic bomber flights to probe western air defenses, invested in new strategic weapons, and used the windfall from high oil prices to rebuild its weakened military."We watch it, as we always do," General Bantz Craddock, the supreme NATO commander told reporters last week, referring to the resumption of Russian strategic bomber flights. "At this point, I don't see it as threatening at all.""Now, the military growth overall: Again an area that is worth watching and noteworthy," he said.US military commanders in Europe, meanwhile, are urging the Pentagon to reconsider plans for bringing home two heavy divisions from Europe."We don't know what is going to happen in terms of a resurgent Russia," said General David McKiernan, the US army commander in Europe. He recommends keeping four combat brigades and support forces totalling some 40,000 troops in Europe.Those developments have come amid moves by Moscow to reassert itself with former Soviet republics-tangling with Georgia, using gas supplies to pressure Ukraine, and rebuilding political and military ties in the Caucasus and Central Asia.Estonia came under a massive computer network assault earlier this year at the height of a bitter political confrontation with Moscow.However, no issue has driven a deeper wedge between Russia and the United States than plans for US missile defense sites in Eastern Europe.Brushing aside US assurances, Moscow has threatened to target or in some way "neutralize" future missile defense sites, and threatened to withdraw from a Cold War-era treaty that abolished US and Russian intermediate range nuclear missiles.It also has set a December 12 deadline for suspending its participation in a treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe unless all NATO member countries ratify an amended version of the treaty.But as he flew home from talks in Moscow over the weekend, Gates explained Russia's behavior as a "delayed reaction" to their humiliating loss of stature in the early 1990s."I think President Putin is coming back and saying you have to take us into account on all these things: we are back, we have money and we are a key player," he told reporters. "And you will need our help to solve problems, and if you won't seek our help we can prevent problems from being solved."But Gates and other outside experts do not predict a return to a Cold War rivalry."If there is a grand strategy there, I'm not sure it's all that clear," said Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and an expert on arms control issues.If Putin carries out the threat to withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, he will scare Europeans, possibly driving them back toward the United States on security issues, he said.If Russia were to withdraw from Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty, it would find itself at odds not so much with the United States, which is out of range of the missiles, as with Europe and China, he said."People (will) suddenly start asking where is Moscow is going, why are they undoing agreements that we thought were basic pieces of the European security structure," he said.Even with Russia's increased military spending, US officials play down its return as a military rival.Russian demographics suggest it will not be able field large ground forces for 10 or 15 years, Gates said. So far, its spending appears to be focused on rebuilding its strategic rather than conventional forces."I think they would have to put quite a bit more money into their military to bring it up to something that would be a serious concern, given how low it went in the 1990s."They are still only spending about 30-35 billion (dollars) for defense, which is a lot of money but when you compare it to the Pentagon's spending it's not all that much," Pifer said.David Mosher, an analyst at the Rand Corporation, sees Russian threats on CFE and INF treaties as mischief-making for short term political objectives but says they carry a risk of unintended consequences."I don't think what the Russians are talking about now has a lot of military significance. Although it could in the future. That's the problem," he said.
As in the days of Noah....
