The Jordanian Option

The idea of a confederacy between Jordan and Palestinian-controlled Judea and Samaria has been embraced across the Israeli political spectrum as well as in Washington.There are several reasons for the revival of the Jordanian Option.With the fall of Gaza to Hamas,Jordan could strengthen the "moderate"Palestinian government led by western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas.It is clear that Abbas cannot establish law and order on his own,much less deliver on peace with Israel.It would also give Palestinians freedom of movement.Since Israel cannot open its borders to the Palestinians because of the threat of suicide bombers,
Jordan could provide employment and a gateway to the outside world.The idea has been embraced across the Israeli political spectrum as well as in Washington,which is desperately seeking a way out of the crisis brought on by the threat of Hamas.Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who heads the hawkish Likud party proposed that Jordanian security forces should be allowed into the Palestinian territories to restore law and order.Even Shimon Peres,the architect of the Oslo Accords and the new President of Israel,said Israel has to look for a new formula for relations with the Palestinians."If I were to follow my heart,we will have to resolve our conflict with the Palestinians in cooperation with Jordan," he said."We will not be able to bring about peace with the Palestinians by ourselves."That effectively marks a reversal of Oslo,which was based on bilateral ties and cooperation."If we hope to reach a position of serious peace negotiations,then this would be the best option,"Knesset (parliament) Member Eitan Kabel of the dovish Labor Party told Israel Today."But the question remains as towhether the Jordanians want it too." The far-right also welcomes the Jordanian Option,but with a much different interpretation."Two states west of the Jordan River are not an option,"said Arieh Eldad of the pro-settlement National Union party."The true Jordanian Option is:Jordan is Palestine!"According to this thinking,Jordan is already a Palestinian state because its population is 70 percent Palestinian.Israel,in turn,would annex the biblical heartland of Judea and Samaria. Theoretically it makes sense,but practically it cannot work because the Palestinians and the
world would never agree to moving 1.5 million Arabs from the West to the East Bank of the Jordan River.Israeli Arab Knesset members reject the proposal."We want an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital,"parliamentarian Ibrahim Zarzur told Israel Today.Arab Knesset member Ahmed Tibi concurred."Jordan's King Abdullah has made it very clear that he does not want a confederation with the Palestinians,"he said."The JordanianOption is nothing more than wishful thinking on Israel's side."However,there is growing support for the idea among Palestinians.According to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research,42 percent of Palestinians support a confederation with Jordan,compared to less than 15 percent 10 years ago."We have tried all kinds of models, and nothing has worked,"said a Fatah politician who asked not to be identified.Jordan's King Abdullah,however,flatly rejects the Jordanian Option."This amounts to treason against Jordan and the Palestinians,"he said."I will not approve it."Abdullah fears that if he made such a deal,the Palestinians would quickly topple his kingdom.He should know.During "Black September"in 1970,Abdullah's father,King Hussein, expelled the PLO from Jordan because it became a threat to his kingdom.At least 7,000 Palestinians were killed,and Yasser Arafat and his forces fled to Lebanon.In 1988, six months after the outbreak of the first intifada (uprising), King Hussein ceded his claims to the "West Bank,"fearing that the unrest would spill over into Jordan.The possibility of a Hamas takeover in Judea and Samaria scares Jordan as much as it scares Israel.But for Jordan,the Jordanian Option is not an option.
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